From the February issue of The Respect PaperWhere does NHS funding "gap" come from?Tory and Labour politicians have each promised only to maintain the current level of NHS spending, and increase this in line with inflation each year - effectively freezing spending in real terms.But the growing elderly population, rising drug costs, and the costs of new treatments and techniques all mean that the NHS needs an increase of up to 4% per year simply to keep pace with the demands on it.
And with NHS spending this year at just over £100 billion, every year of frozen spending opens up a gap of around £4 billion: and in addition to this many NHS budgets had already been based on highly ambitious 'efficiency savings' of 5 percent each year - a level that has never previously been achieved.
This is why chief executive Sir David Nicholson has warned that the NHS needs to save a total of £15-£20 billion over the next five years - and has pressed for cutbacks towards this to begin in 2010-11. He told the Health Service Journal: "This is tougher than the NHS has ever had, through its history. And it's for a sustained period."
Former NHS Finance Director Noel Plumridge has estimated in the HSJ that : "Savings on this scale could entail perhaps half a dozen hospitals going to the wall in each Strategic Health Authority; delivering them by 2014 would represent a huge challenge"
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